具体分析
以上就是Geoges Nahon的讲话内容，下面我将用简单的笔记形式和大家分享我的理解。如果你想了解上面的这些趋势从何而来，这些信息就非常有用。这些或强或弱的信号，加起来就可以让我们看到一些趋势。
244年后，大英百科全书就消失了。同样的事情发生在广告行业，自2000年后，广告收入就如自由落体般下滑。
任天堂渐渐陨落，Zynga出现了，游戏世界变得不一样了，“不会再有60美元的游戏和控制台了” ，这是Georges的原话。
RIM发布了巨大的Q1亏损报告，诺基亚也是水深火热，但另一边亚马逊和苹果都在蓬勃发展，谷歌也很稳定。RIM、诺基亚索尼、松下、夏普都遇到了一些困难。
电视制造商将手机厂商视为竞争对手。过去，电话只是用来通话，而现在却由电脑制造商来生产。这个世界在快速变化。在美国，电话语音通讯时间已经下降了50%，智能手机的覆盖率和使用率都正在惊人地增长，并且这个速度已经超越了过去第一代移动电话出现时地增长速度。
2012年也是第一次在线电影观看收入超越DVD收入。 松下前总裁兼董事长宣布，“电视的黄金时代已经结束”，宽带正在成为核心服务。
英特尔证实服务器制造商IBM、Dell、HP、Quanta正在下滑，而 Supermicro、Wiwynn 以及Huawei才是新星。
PC时代的结束? IT的世界正在从电脑桌面转移到云计算和在线存储。平板电脑的兴起确实危及到了电脑制造商如Dell的业务。英特尔正在向安卓发展，而微软则转向了ARM 芯片。世界会变得更加开放，光盘，以太网，硬盘驱动器(非SSD)已经远去，语音识别即将到来。同时，图形用户界面将被触摸屏幕替换。
Bezos在几个星期前曾经说道，“硬件很快就会变得无关紧要”，并且他的商业模式是基于按次付费使用而并非设备的销售。
各个领域都在改变，整个IT产业的每一个层面也都在变化。 整个世界的经济都在网络上前行。在短短3年里，苹果售出了6700万台iPad，但在计算机上它却花了24年时间才达到这一数字。
创业的成本从2000年的500万美元降低到2011年的5000美元，这一切都源于云计算的出现。
我们需要了解的一个关键因素是“规模化”。一切都需要规模，规模推动技术，例如，有超过4亿个应用程序商店帐户;Facebook每天收集500 TB的数据;Twitter的每天产生8 TB的数据而，而纽约证券交易所每天只产生1TB。 大玩家每天都在出现，但是能够成功的关键就在于规模，如果你没有规模，那你自己也会失去继续下去的兴趣。
老牌大企业已经建立了这么多的R&D部门，但是新人们依旧会不断为这个行业带来创新和变革。
移动互联网的发展是前所未见的，让我们不可能去依赖过去的经验。世界银行也表示，如今我们生活在一个手机比人还多的世界中(例如30%会搜索餐厅的用户来自手机用户)。
通常建造者们都不是太会经营自己的建筑。有些大公司，包括Facebook在内，正在成为收购大王，而硅谷也正是由这些新的大王和新的资金所主导的。在硅谷有人才的竞赛，很多创业公司是靠人才才获得成功的，甚至在硅谷一个新的流行语，那就是Acqui-Hire，人才收购。
- 微软收购Yammer，Facebook收购Instagram，思科收购NDS(50亿美元)，SAP收购Ariba(43亿美元)，戴尔收购Quest和Nicira(11亿美元)，甲骨文收购Taleo，所有的交易都超过了十亿美元。
- IPO变成It’s Probably Overpriced股价过高代名词。Facebook的市值下降了55%，Zynga下降了76%，Groupon则是74%。媒体们开始讨论 Facebook后时代，不过Nahon仍然认为社交将是“整个建筑物的核心”。
detailed analysis
This is the detailed analysis of the situation according to Georges Nahon. I am leaving my notes in raw format. They are useful if you want to understand where the above trends are coming from. Each bullet point sums up a weak or strong signal which add up in order to form trends:
•after 244 years, encyclopaedia Britannica disappeared. The same thing happened with regard to advertising revenues in freefall since 2000. One sees destruction of value.
•Nintendo fades, Zynga emerges: it’s a different world which “doesn grow on $60 games and consoles” in Georges Nahon’s words.
•RIM posted huge Q1 miss and huge losses. Nokia is in bad shape too: Amazon and Apple are thriving, Google is almost stable and RIM and Nokia are having serious difficulties. And so are Sony, Panasonic and Sharp Nahon added.
•TV makers see phone manufacturers as competitors. Originally, phones were used for voice Georges Nahon said and now phones are made by computer manufacturers, the world has shifted. Voice time usage is indeed down by 50% in the US Nahon added. Adoption rates for smartphones are growing exponentially and adoption is much faster than for previous technology including first generation mobile phones.
•Similarly, 2012 is the first year in which online film watching overtook DVD revenues. Junio Nakamura, former president and chairman at Panasonic announced that “the golden age of TV is over” and broadband is becoming the core service.
•Intel confirms the decline of server manufacturers IBM Dell and HP and Quanta, Supermicro, Wiwynn and Huawei are the new stars.
•The end of the PC era? The world of IT is moving from desktops to cloud and online storage. Dell’s business (for instance) is indeed very much endangered by the rise of tablet computing. Intel is moving to Android and Microsoft is resorting to ARM chips, and the world is more open Georges said: Discs, Ethernet, hard drives (vs SSD) are gone and here comes ‘speech recognition’. At the same time, the graphical user interface is being replaced by the touch
•Amazon’s Bezos announced a few weeks ago that “hardware becomes irrelevant” and that his business model was based on pay-per-use vs. the sale of devices.
•Wave of changes from all areas coming together, happening at all layers of the technology stack. It’s happening all over the world. “the entire world economy is moving on the Web” he said. For instance, Apple sold 67 million of iPads in just 3 years, whereas it had taken them 24 years to reach that number with computers.
•Start-up world: the cost of start-up creation is down from $ 5 m in 2000 to $ 5 k in 2011 because of cloud computing.
•One of the conclusion is that there is one critical element one needs to understand is “scale”. Everything needs to scale, and scale is pushing technology Georges Nahon said (e.g. there are more than 400 m app store accounts; Facebook is collecting 500 terabytes of data each day; Twitter generates 8 TB per day vs. 1 TB for the NYSE). Super giants are being created, massive numbers are essential for growing business and if you can’t scale there is no interest for being in that business Nahon said.
•Established giants have established so much on R&D do not want to enforce change too soon but the news guys are bring innovation in the market Georges Nahon said in essence.
•Mobile Internet usage uptake is unprecedented and it’s impossible to rely on past experience and the world bank is also showing that we are in a world where there a more phones than people. E.g. 30% of searches on restaurants are made from mobiles.
“The establishment doesn’t know how to handle that” Nahon said. Giants – of which Facebook is a new member – are becoming acquisition monsters and therefore Silicon Valley is dominated by the power of money and those new acquisition giants. There is therefore a race for talent and “start-ups are getting snapped for their talent”. This new world is being called “Acqui-Hire” “this is one of the new buzzwords in the Valley” Georges said.
•Microsoft bought Yammer, Facebook acquired Instagram, NDS was bought by Cisco ($ 5bn), Ariba by SAP ($4.3 bn), Quest by Dell, Taleo by Oracle and Nicira by Dell ($ 1.1 bn), “all for more than a billion dollars” Nahon said. Nicira were almost bought overnight he added.
•IPOcalypse (IPO= It’s Probably Overpriced). There were Summer discussions about the “so-called social media meltdown”. The total market value of Facebook is down 55%, 76% for Zynga and 74% down for Groupon. Journalists are even talking of a “life after Facebook” but Nahon said that social is part of the fabric he said. “The entire IT industry is moving to the cloud in quasi panic mode” he added. Jim Goetz from Sequoia Capital mentions that enterprise start-ups are a lot more of a dynamic and interesting space than the consumer space.
