Orange的CEO Georges Nahon最近分析了如今IT产业，尤其是硅谷正在发生的变化。对我来说印象最深的就是，Georges预言在未来网络将变得无处不在，并且未来的网络和今天我们所熟悉的网络并不一样。
Facebook会成为下一个Yahoo?
在刚过去的这个夏天，因为Facebook的IPO，让社交领域的从业者都过得很难。Facebook IPO之后，IPO就成为是It is Possibly Overpriced“股价过高”的代名词。
但现在就说社交媒体已经走到尽头，未免太悲观了。Georges认为，社交一定是趋势，并且将会改变未来互联网中的一切，尽管Facebook本身将可能成为下一个Yahoo了。
Georges同时认为，在万维网之后，包括亚马逊在内涌现出的一大批公司正在创造一个“non-searchable adjacent webs不可被搜索的网络“，这听起来很像数年前Wired杂志的Chris Anderson曾经预言的万维网的终结。
我也认同Georges的观点。出于更好的用户体验，网络所拥有的纯粹的中立性可能会受影响。当然谁也不能预见未来，但时间会告诉我们一切，现在已经有一些这样的势头。
互联网产业的五大趋势
1、一切都是移动的。Georges说，“Twitter是一家以移动为本的公司，它将会很好地继续发展下去;而Facebook不是，它的未来令人担忧。”目前有10%的网络流量来自移动端，在美国有25%的用户只通过移动端访问网络，但是在印度，这一数字是60%，而埃及是70%!有 68%的用户会在睡觉的时候把手机放在床边。
2、社交已成标配。当社交网络与移动相遇(超过50%的智能手机访问过Facebook)，社交图谱(Facebook)，兴趣图谱(Twitter)，影响力图谱(Kllout)将会是万维网的先锋，他们必定会持续很长一段时间。
对很多人来说Facebook就是新的网络(比如在Facebook上找我们，在twitter上关注我们等)，那么搜索的未来会是怎样呢?一定是社交化的，这也是谷歌和微软现在正在努力的方向，而Facebook的搜索很快将会推出。
3、另一个万维网。传统的Web发展正在减速，Apple，Amazon，Facebook以及移动互联网，将继续发展他们“不可被搜索的网络”。
4、新的前沿在云端。Amazon、Zynga、Rackspace或是Google会被”突袭“，但像Bluejeans、 Alfresco、Joyent等这些你可能都未听说过的公司也正在加入来。爆炸性的数据增长正在促使更多的公司寻求减轻数据负担的方案。“下一个 Big Thing不是软件，而是数据”， Nahon总结道。
5、所有的视频都会在网络上。事实上在视频领域活跃的玩家们都来自互联网领域，而不是传统的媒体业。
在电视领域，我们会看到更多前所未见的创意与创新。尽管在智能电视机上，以app为中心的概念并不是很令人信服。另一个趋势是社交电视。
万维网的未来
1、数据主导
2、app将会引领用户和企业创新，而html5将会渗入app和网络服务
3、”不可被搜索的网络“将继续发展，网络也将变得碎片化
4、网站主导的万维网即将灭亡，取而代之的是如Facebook上的按钮那样的超链接
5、实时的、多玩家的游戏云平台将会影响整个云技术产业
6、4G/LTE将激发各种创新
7、移动支付的时代将于2015年真正开始
8、所有的视频都会出现在万维网上
9、企业级IT系统将会转向云端
10、Facebook还将会在未来两年统治互联网，Google一直处于追赶状态，而在三年内，它们最终都将变成Yahoo
11、Amazon将会继续多元化发展，并推出更多云端的在线商务/娱乐产品以及移动设备(平板或手机)。“Amazon在欧洲市场被轻视了，但事实上它才是一个大玩家，Bezos是另一个乔布斯。”
普鲁士将军曾经说过，“没有一个计划在与敌人开战后还能有效。”就好比5年前，没有人看得到iPhone的未来，即使是所谓的分析师，也并没有预见到苹果会成为电信行业的大玩家。所以，请永远为未知做好准备。
显然Orange想要为未来作好充分的准备，在硅谷的一大关键因素就是投资。在海湾地区，32亿美元的风险投资占美国总投资额的46%(数据来源San Jose chronicle第二季度数据)。尽管许多高科技公司在德州，但该州仅贡献了1.79亿美元的投资(3%)。投资的主要领域是信息通信技术和新媒体，虽然并不仅局限于此。
在今年第二季度，软件业获得数目最多的投资金额，约合23.7亿美元。
Apple + Cisco+Oracle +Google +Intel总共市值为12618.2亿美元(IBM仅为2360亿美元，FTE 370亿美元)。这背后所隐藏的事实是，有无数的小型公司帮助这些公司铸成现在的王国。
Georges Nahon delivered a very inspiring keynote today before our panel of bloggers in which he shared his vision with regard to what is happening in IT in general, and in the Valley in particular. I will begin my account of Georges’s visionary presentation by detailing his conclusions. As I always do, I have taken detailed notes of the pitch and they are made available at the end of this piece. If there is one thing that should be remembered from that pitch is that the Web is everywhere and in everything that will be happening in the future. Something which established players don’t like according to the Head of Orange Silicon Valley. However, Nahon insisted on the fact that it won’t be the same Internet we used to know.
Facebook will be “Yahooed!”
“Social” has been going through a rough patch over the Summer, with the now infamous Facebook IPO, dubbed “IPOcalypse”, IPO meaning “It’s Probably Overpriced” Nahon said facetiously. Yet, Europeans are wrong when they interpret these issues as the end of social media, Georges Nahon said in essence. Social is here to stay, and beyond, it will change everything which takes place on the Web, even though Facebook itself will probably be “Yahooed!” Georges added.
But the worrying thing I got from his pitch is that, according to his analysis, next to the World Wide Web that we all know, an increasing number of companies, including Amazon, are creating a “non-searchable adjacent Web” which sounds very much like the end of the Web as Chris Anderson announced in Wired a few years ago. I think Georges is right indeed, there is a growing concern that Net neutrality is being sacrificed for the sake of user experience. Time will tell, but there are indeed worrying signs.
Here is how I summed up Georges’s 5 trends for the future of IT:
1.Tech is all about mobile: “Twitter is a mobile-first company” and thriving he said, “Facebook isn’t and is suffering”. 10% of Internet traffic is made of mobile traffic. Yet, 25% of US users are using the Web from mobile only, but in Egypt, this number soars up to 70%, and India is close to 60%! And 68% place their mobile next to their bed while sleeping at night.
2.The default is now social: and social meets mobile (over 50% of smartphones connect to Facebook). Social graph (Facebook), interest graph (Twitter) and influence graph (Klout) are the new frontiers of the Web and “they are here to stay … for a long time” Nahon said. For many, Facebook is the new web (“find us on Facebook, follow us on Twitter). What is the future of search? it is social and both Google and Microsoft are working on it… “and Facebook search is coming fast” Nahon added.
3.Another Web: At the same time, traditional web development is slowing down, and Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Mobile will continue develop their “non-searchable adjacent webs” as Nahon called it.
4.The Cloud as a new frontier: “The new guys are Amazon, Zynga, Rackspace and even people like Google were taken by surprise” Nahon said. But there are even newer guys you may never heard of such as Bluejeans, Alfresco, Joyent and many many more. Explosive data growth is also forcing companies to develop solutions for data reduction. And “the next big thing isn’t Software, it’s data” Nahon concluded on that subject.
5.All video will be on the Net: most players in that field are coming from the Internet world, not the media world. “We think that the future of TV is to be streamed” Nahon said. There is more innovation than ever before in that area he said. Nahon added though that the concept of app-centric TV on smart TVs wasn’t entirely convincing. Time Warner see their future in apps but another trend is Social TV (described by Nahon as “a descendant of interactive TV which never worked”. 85% of tablet owners use their device while watching TV he said. What are they doing? Social websites, Zynga, Search, Craigslits (an old web survivor!) according to Nielsen.
the future of the World Wide Web
So, what is the future of the Web? Georges Nahon highlighted 10 trends in that area too:
1.the web is becoming data centric
2.apps will rule consumer and entreprise innovations and html5 will infiltrate apps and web services
3.non searchable adjacent webs will continue to develop and the web will be fragmented and site-less (mobile, apps)
4.the web of sites is dead and Facebook like buttons are the new hyper links
5.Real-time multi-user game cloud platforms will influence enterprise cloud technologies: the main issue will be “latency” ‘as already explained on that blog)
6.4G/LTE (which we all were using to day via local mifi devives) will trigger innovation
7.mobile payment will kick off from 2015
8.all video will be on the web
9.Enterprise IT will shift to the cloud.
10.Facebook will rule the web during the next 2 years and Google will be in catch-up mode and within 3 years they will be “Yahooed!” Nahon said
11.Amazon will continue to diversify and will create more online commerce/entertainment clouds and mobile devices (tablets/phones). “Amazon is belittled in Europe” Nahon added, “and it should be considered as a major player, for Bezos is the new Steve Jobs”.
Started as an R&D organisation and evolved towards what they are today (scouting organisation). 60 people, 40 of which are in a position to file patents and they file 20 per annum. Often, it’s about reviewing the strategy. Statement from Prussian general “no plan survives contact with the enemy” e.g. 5 years ago, no one had seen the iPhone coming. Even analysts. An none of these people has seen Apple becoming a major player in the Telecom industry => be prepared for the unexpected. There were times in which you telcos could go to the ITU organisation and get things sorted but this isn’t the case anymore.
Essentially Orange wants to get prepared for the future. One of the key elements for Silicon Valley is capital investment. In Bay Area only, venture investments represent $3.2 bn 46% of total investments in the USA (San Jose chronicle on Q2 results). Texas only represents $ 179 m (3%) despite the huge tech firms in that state. The core subjects is ICT and media but not only.
The software industry in Q2 of this year received the highest level of funding. (34 out of 39% other source) $2.37 bn i.e. 32% of the total.
Market capitalisation: Apple + Cisco +Oracle +Google +Intel have a total of $ 1,261.82 bn (IBM is only $236b or FTE $37b). What this hides is the myriad of small companies which help these companies become what they are.
