近场通信（NFC）支付末日将临了，假如PayPal公司总裁David Marcus的预言准确的话。然而，我们联系的澳大利亚行业分析师对此持不同意见。
澳大利亚有若干具有近场通信功能的智能手机、使用的是谷歌公司的安卓系统，包括三星、HTC、索尼等公司的产品。该技术使用户能在支付终端上以手机感应支付。
PayPal总裁David Marcus在周一贴出的博客中预测：近场通信支付将“不能获得大规模采用”、2013年间关于该技术是否适于支付的争议“将慢慢消失”。
他在博客中说：“用手机在终端感应支付比刷信用卡容易？我不敢苟同。它没有为消费者解决实际问题，没带来更多的价值以鼓励消费者改变习惯”。
在发出这一有争议预测的同时，该公司正与银行、电信运营商、其他技术公司鏖战，争当消费者预设手机钱包的供应商。最大的几家澳大利亚银行正计划推动支持NFC支付，Visa信用卡集团宣布了在沃达丰智能手机上使用的NFC支付小应用程序。
澳大利亚咨询公司IBRS的分析师Guy Cranswick对本刊说，他与Marcus的意见“完全一致”。
Cranswick说：“该技术经常被认为是催化剂，但实际并不是，而Marcus对NFC的论点一直是我所表达的。这是我分析市场的原因，因为NFC被吹得过火了，会逐渐消失的”。
然而，Telsyte的分析师Rodney Gedda对NFC流行前景表示乐观。
Gedda说：“NFC很快将成为所有智能手机的标准，该技术可用于很多场合，不限于支付。NFC将获得大规模采用，就像蓝牙和WiFi一样，集成到用户始终持有的设备中”。
PayPal决定不将NFC技术用于其最近宣布的商店移动支付系统。使用这一系统，客户运行PayPal的手机小程序，登录到所访问商店的系统上。商号就可以在其POS终端上看到该客户的PayPal信息、再通过点击其相片从客户的PayPal账户中扣款。
试用该系统的商户对其直观的客户体验赞许有加，但承认此支付方式的用户数增长仍很缓慢、交易费与美国运通卡的一样昂贵。
在其博客中，PayPal公司的Marcus预测：明年支付、积分、优惠券将合并到一个数字钱包里。“这三项不同的业务合流将易于顾客与商户自动利用适当的打折券与优惠”。
他还说收款机将成为移动式的，商店雇员可在店中任何位置收款。
The end is nigh for near field communications (NFC) mobile payments, if PayPal president, David Marcus, is correct in his predictions. However, Australian industry analysts we contacted had differing views on the fate of NFC.
A number of NFC-enabled devices running Google's Android mobile platform are available in Australia, including smartphones from Samsung, HTC and Sony. The technology allows users to pay by tapping their smartphone against a payment terminal.
PayPal president, David Marcus, predicted in a blog post Monday that NFC for payments will “fail to gain mass adoption” and the debate over NFC’s suitability for payments “will slowly die in 2013.”
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“Is tapping a phone on a terminal any easier than swiping a credit card?” he asked on the PayPal blog. “I don’t think so—it’s not solving a real consumer problem and its [sic] not providing additional value to encourage me (or anyone else for that matter) to change my behavior.”
PayPal made the controversial prediction amid a fight with banks, telcos and technology companies to become consumers’ default mobile digital wallet. The top Australian banks are moving forward with plans to support NFC payments, while Visa recently announced a NFC payment app for Vodafone smartphones.
IBRS analyst, Guy Cranswick, told Computerworld Australia he “completely agree[s]” with Marcus.
“Too often the technology is seen as the catalyst but it’s not and his argument is one I have made on NFC,” Cranswick said. “It’s the reason why I analysed the market because there was so much hype on the NFC gate but it will fade.”
However, Telsyte analyst Rodney Gedda voiced optimism for NFC catching on.
“NFC is quickly becoming a standard for all smartphones and the technology can be used for many applications, not just payments,” Gedda said. “NFC will gain mass adoption the same way Bluetooth and Wi-Fi gained mass adoption by being integrated into devices people carry with them all the time.”
PayPal chose not to use NFC technology for its recently announced in-store mobile payment system. With that system, customers can open the PayPal mobile app and check into the store they are visiting. The store can then see their customers PayPal profiles on their point-of-sale (POS) terminals and charge the customer’s PayPal account by tapping his or her picture.
Businesses trialling the system have praised the PayPal system for an intuitive customer experience, but admitted that customer uptake of the payment method is still low and transaction fees are as expensive as American Express.
In his blog, PayPal’s Marcus predicted that payments, loyalty points and coupons will merge into one digital wallet next year. “These three separate businesses will converge to make it easy for consumers and merchants to automatically leverage appropriate coupons and offers.”
Marcus also said that the cash register will become mobile, so store employees can charge customers for products anywhere in the store.
