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CNN大呼中国困境将远甚于欧洲,是诋毁还是实情

Danny翻译,Danny发布英文 ; 2012-08-07 14:58 阅读次 
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CNN大呼中国困境将远甚于欧洲,是诋毁还是实情这是CNN360度商业板块的帖子,读者在周五讨论了"中国将会出现比欧盟更严重的衰退"。

这个帖子的核心内容是 CNN的Richard Quest同高盛的资产管理主席Jim O'Neill的谈话,谈话主要议题是: 发展中国家例如中国的经济下降比欧盟危机更加令人忧虑。

关于这个议题的很多评论总结起来就是两个词:什么在放缓?

Jon B:我是是一个美国人,我在中国居住了5年时间。是的,经济在放缓,价格在升高,但是中国人正在变得越来越富有。现在他们的经济形势依然很好,或许在未来十年,中国才会面临当前美国的困境。但是现在,中国依然劲头十足。这里的冰山还没有大到足以撞沉这艘巨轮。

Marco Hsiao:中国将会保持继续繁荣,新加坡的人均收入已经超过了美国。并且差距还在扩大。他们的祖辈来自中国的南方。

Marie:我最近住在中国的上海和广州。这两个城市看起来都非常现代化,路上都是新车。麦当劳人满为患,每餐的价格在5美元上下。新的公寓和社区正在建设。我想说的是人们更加有钱,城市更加现代化。没有崩溃的迹象。

一些人指出中国的一党专政会限制自由表达,导致经济的政策以及命令由行政官员制定而非民选官员。

Migen Bora:我们一定不要忘记了中国是一个专政的国家,人们没有自由。现在中国虽然取得了经济上的成就,但这来自于对于劳动力的压榨,他们没有支付西方国家支付的成本。这是不能支撑的,有一天中国就会崩溃。

Srtcruz:中国模式与西方国家相比,有一个巨大的优势,那就是中央控制。一旦讨论的和政治被限制在一个很小的范围内之后,这一模式能够很好处理危机。他们没有类似于美国的"债务上限"问题,也没有欧盟的政治混乱问题。简而言之,他们更迅速、更有力。

你能想到哪个国家,他和美国面积相当,但是在这个议题上连续出现四次而没有解决吗?对了,那就是印度。

今年是胡锦涛和奥巴马的最后执政年,一些人指出这将是动荡的一年,北京将会极力避免经济的硬着陆。

Godfather:邓小平--经济增长期。江泽民--经济增长期。胡锦涛--经济增长期。下一届主席,你认为他会把中国带入经济衰退?他会让自己的名字在历史上留下污点?我敢打赌他一定会强力推动中国继续繁荣,中国经济继续向前发展。

Jun Sorioso: 我预计处于压力下的中国领导人将会继续维持经济表现,至少要等到今年年末的换届。换句话说,经济形势或许比我们看见的更糟。

Saorise72:除过制造业和出口的问题之外,中国还存在很多问题。一个问题就是增长的债务。一些城市比如说武汉有超过9亿元的债务。还有一个问题就是中国非法银行交易。其中有一些问题是美国监管者刚刚限制的。中国还在监管房地产市场,这是过于十年疏忽的问题。

热钱正在流出中国,很多前政府官员和他们的家庭移居国外。中国还有很多审计的问题,即使最近的GDP增长公布。当新一届政府上台,在他们面前面临着巨大的挑战。伴随着对于增长的不满和食物价格的上涨,他们最好能够找出更好的解决方案,抑制通胀、减少投机、增加会计法规、改革银行、淘汰非法银行以及杜绝腐败--就像韩国在上世纪90年所做的那样。

CNN大呼中国困境将远甚于欧洲,是诋毁还是实情这是CNN360度商业板块的帖子,读者在周五讨论了"中国将会出现比欧盟更严重的衰退"。

这个帖子的核心内容是 CNN的Richard Quest同高盛的资产管理主席Jim O'Neill的谈话,谈话主要议题是: 发展中国家例如中国的经济下降比欧盟危机更加令人忧虑。

关于这个议题的很多评论总结起来就是两个词:什么在放缓?

Jon B:我是是一个美国人,我在中国居住了5年时间。是的,经济在放缓,价格在升高,但是中国人正在变得越来越富有。现在他们的经济形势依然很好,或许在未来十年,中国才会面临当前美国的困境。但是现在,中国依然劲头十足。这里的冰山还没有大到足以撞沉这艘巨轮。

Marco Hsiao:中国将会保持继续繁荣,新加坡的人均收入已经超过了美国。并且差距还在扩大。他们的祖辈来自中国的南方。

Marie:我最近住在中国的上海和广州。这两个城市看起来都非常现代化,路上都是新车。麦当劳人满为患,每餐的价格在5美元上下。新的公寓和社区正在建设。我想说的是人们更加有钱,城市更加现代化。没有崩溃的迹象。

一些人指出中国的一党专政会限制自由表达,导致经济的政策以及命令由行政官员制定而非民选官员。

Migen Bora:我们一定不要忘记了中国是一个专政的国家,人们没有自由。现在中国虽然取得了经济上的成就,但这来自于对于劳动力的压榨,他们没有支付西方国家支付的成本。这是不能支撑的,有一天中国就会崩溃。

Srtcruz:中国模式与西方国家相比,有一个巨大的优势,那就是中央控制。一旦讨论的和政治被限制在一个很小的范围内之后,这一模式能够很好处理危机。他们没有类似于美国的"债务上限"问题,也没有欧盟的政治混乱问题。简而言之,他们更迅速、更有力。

你能想到哪个国家,他和美国面积相当,但是在这个议题上连续出现四次而没有解决吗?对了,那就是印度。

今年是胡锦涛和奥巴马的最后执政年,一些人指出这将是动荡的一年,北京将会极力避免经济的硬着陆。

Godfather:邓小平--经济增长期。江泽民--经济增长期。胡锦涛--经济增长期。下一届主席,你认为他会把中国带入经济衰退?他会让自己的名字在历史上留下污点?我敢打赌他一定会强力推动中国继续繁荣,中国经济继续向前发展。

Jun Sorioso: 我预计处于压力下的中国领导人将会继续维持经济表现,至少要等到今年年末的换届。换句话说,经济形势或许比我们看见的更糟。

Saorise72:除过制造业和出口的问题之外,中国还存在很多问题。一个问题就是增长的债务。一些城市比如说武汉有超过9亿元的债务。还有一个问题就是中国非法银行交易。其中有一些问题是美国监管者刚刚限制的。中国还在监管房地产市场,这是过于十年疏忽的问题。

热钱正在流出中国,很多前政府官员和他们的家庭移居国外。中国还有很多审计的问题,即使最近的GDP增长公布。当新一届政府上台,在他们面前面临着巨大的挑战。伴随着对于增长的不满和食物价格的上涨,他们最好能够找出更好的解决方案,抑制通胀、减少投机、增加会计法规、改革银行、淘汰非法银行以及杜绝腐败--就像韩国在上世纪90年所做的那样。

There was lively debate among Business 360 readers on question posed by Friday’s post China slowdown bigger worry than eurozone?

The heart of Friday’s post was the conversation CNN’s Richard Quest had with Jim O’Neill, chairman of asset management for Goldman Sachs, that the slowdown of developing economies such as China was more worrisome than the eurozone crisis.

Many of the dozens of comments from Business 360 readers can be summed up in two words: What slowdown?

Jon B: “I'm an American and I've been living in China for 5 years. Yes, businesses are hurting and prices are rising, but China's people are only getting richer. Their economy is doing just fine for right now. Maybe within the next five to 10 years China will resemble the U.S. and its current struggle, but for now they are full steam ahead. There aren't many icebergs big enough to cripple this boat just yet.”

Marco Hsiao: “China (Mainland China + ROC Taiwan + Hong Kong + Macau) are all moving to more prosperity. Singapore has surpassed the U.S. on per capita income, and the gap is expanding. Their ancestors are from South China.”

Marie: “I was recently in China in Shanghai and Guangzhou. Both cities looked modern, all cars on the roads were new. McDonalds (sadly) was full and the meals were around $5. Nice new condos and houses were being built. I would say people there have more money than ever and the cities were very modern. No outward signs of collapse yet.

Other readers pointed out the one-party rule in China, its impingement on free expression as well as its command-economy ability to run by edict rather than through elected officials.

Migen Bora: “We must not forget that China is a dictatorship state. People there are not free (they don`t even know how freedom is like) … Now, China may have some economic results, but they come from underpaid workforce and by not having the costs that Western countries have (health care, RD etc). It cannot hold forever, one day it will collapse (like the Soviet Union).”

Srtcruz: “The Chinese model actually has one very distinct advantage versus the west – central control. That model will be better at resolving a crisis since the debates and politics are kept within a smaller core. They will not have the same political issues as the ‘Debt Ceiling’ in the US or the current political mess in the European Union – in-short they have speed and decisiveness.

“Can you imagine if both issues arise in a country four times the size of the United States? Oh right, India.”

With the President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao both in their final year of office, readers pointed out this could be a year of turbulence or of greater Beijing effort to avoid a hard economic landing.

Godfather: “Deng Xiaoping – a period of economic growth; Jiang Zeming – a period of economic growth; Hu Jintao – a period of economic growth. The next President to be – do you think he will let China into a period of economic recession? And let his name be tainted in history? I bet the next man in power will continue to lead China into continual prosperity and god economic progress.”

Jun Sorioso: “I expect the Chinese leadership to be under a lot of pressure to window dress Chinese economic performance one way or another at least until the leadership transfer late this year. In other words conditions are probably worse than what we are allowed to see.”

Saorise72: “There are many problems in China besides the manufacturing and export issues. One issue is the growing amount of debt. Some cities like Wuhan are over 900 million in debt. There are the issues of illegal banking and trading in China, some of which American regulators just picked up on. There was also a huge speculation on housing the past 10 years that has gotten out of hand.

“Money is leaving China, many ex-government officials and their families have also left China. There is also a number of accounting problems, even with recent numbers posted about GDP growth. So when the new leadership comes into office they have many challenges ahead of them. With growing discontent and food prices they better find some solutions to chill out the inflation, cut speculation, increase accounting regulations, reform the banks, get rid of illegal banking, stop government graft – much like South Korea had to do in the 90's.”


关键字: 世界经济 中国经济 欧洲经济
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