如果在希腊选举前几天定时发布报告是为了就西班牙的偿付能力安抚市场,那么国际货币基金组织的最新报告关于西班牙这个国家的内容也许恰恰相反。
在其最新的西班牙咨文第四部分中,IMF给出了对那种结论官员的观点,即该国不会满足其赤字目标，已经在市场的一些角落里十分流行。今年,国际货币基金组织的人员认为“非常雄心勃勃的占GDP 5.3%的赤字目标…可能会超过。”并且预计接下来的几年里更多的目标会达不到:“由于缺乏2012年后的详细措施,国际货币基金组织的人员预计赤字将大幅度超越目标，在中期过后将逐渐下降”。
评估中也有一些好消息。国际货币基金组织对西班牙决定对其银行再次资本化大加赞扬。对一些已经进行的改革,比如在劳动力市场方面雄心勃勃的措施表示了欢迎。
然而，对一个说话通常会很客气的组织而言，整篇报告的语气似乎非常急躁。摘录其中批评西班牙去年的预算的部分，它说:“2011年的财政状况下滑极大地影响了西班牙的信用度以及实现财政巩固，提高了2012年所必须的财政调整幅度。通过保持信息，加剧了重大财政赤字(几乎占GDP的3%)的影响；因为及时和可靠的数据的缺乏，几乎是直到年底时,财政赤字走上正轨。”
因为通过真实的信息来积累对于西班牙的前景的知识，国际货币基金组织的声明可能没有什么帮助。但是市场上许多人很可能充分领会了它的批评基调。市场对西班牙的压力似乎有可能加剧。
IF THE timing was meant to reassure markets over the viability of Spain in the days before the Greek elections, then the content of the International Monetary Fund's latest report card on the country may do the opposite.
In its latest Article IV consultation with Spain, the IMF gives official credence to the view, already prevalent in some corners of the markets, that the country won't meet its deficit targets. For this year, the IMF's staff think “the very ambitious 5.3 percent of GDP deficit target…will likely be missed.” And more missing of targets is expected over the following few years too: “Given the lack of detailed measures after 2012, staff projects the deficit to significantly overshoot targets and to fall only gradually over the medium term.”
There is some good news in the assessment. The IMF heaps praise on Spain for deciding to recapitalise its banks. And it welcomes some of the reforms already put in place, such as an ambitious effort to get its labour market working.
Yet the tone of the overall report seems remarkably tetchy for an organisation that usually talks quite softly. Take its criticism of Spain's budget-miss last year in which it said: “The fiscal slippage in 2011 greatly undermined the credibility of Spain to deliver fiscal consolidation and increased the needed fiscal adjustment for 2012. The impact of the large overrun (almost 3 percent of GDP) was exacerbated by maintaining the message, until almost the end of the year, that the deficit was on track, and by the lack of timely and reliable data.”
The IMF statement probably adds little by way of real information to the stock of knowledge about Spain's prospects. But many in markets may well latch onto the tone of its criticism. Market pressure on Spain seems likely to intensify.
