美国与众多负债累累的南欧国家的共同点越来越多了，比美国目前承认的还要多的多。如果美国不能短期内就财政赤字削减措施达成共识，出现类似结果的风险将不容忽视。“财政悬崖”在不远的将来若隐若现，而且并不只是威胁到美国。
美国大选已经结束，同时结束的还有在全国各电视台播放的关于美国黑暗前景的竞选广告，特别是在选情激烈的摇摆州。奥巴马和罗姆尼的支持者都描画了一幅关于对手胜出后的末日景象。对于奥巴马的第二个四年，这些选举广告已经给出了警告，将可能导致纯正的社会主义出现。而如果罗姆尼胜出，中低收入阶层被认为会受到残酷的剥削。
但奥巴马已经获得连任，美国人现在面临着一个不同的、更为真实令人恐惧的情况：在未来几周时间里，数以千计的儿童将可能被停止提供接种疫苗服务，联邦资助的学校可能会突然停课，成年人可能被迫放弃艾滋病病毒检测，住房补贴券也会用尽。就连航空交通控制员、FBI探员、边防检查人员和军队都可能大幅度裁剪人员。
根据白宫的信息，如果美国容许自己明年年初掉进“财政悬崖”，上述的一切甚至更多将在不久的将来真实发生。美联储主席伯南克也给出了同样的警告，如果民主共和两党在长远削减财政赤字的问题上无法达成共识，一系列的削减支出和加税措施将自动触发。
美国增长开始下滑
虽然听起来似乎能削减一半财政赤字，但掉入“财政悬崖”肯定会令经济硬着陆。如果税负大增同时国家支出大减，这将是对经济的巨大打击。根据国会预算办公室的数据，2013年的经济增长会马上下滑4%，使得经济衰退难以避免。而失业人数将会大增200万人。
这个可能发生的情况不仅令美国人感到担忧。在美国经济年报中，IMF提到了财政悬崖是美国当前面对的最大风险。据报道，投资者已经变得更为谨慎了。假如美国的政治家不能达成一个有说服力的削减美国负债计划，这最终将动摇美元作为世界储备货币的地位。而IMF在10月发表的世界经济前景报告中写道，更快发生的是，财政悬崖的触发“将对美国的贸易伙伴造成巨大的外溢影响”。换句话说，这将进一步打击已经非常脆弱的欧洲经济。
因为这样，密切关注美国国会是否能在未来几周达成共识的国家不仅是德国。如果美国经济在明年出现大幅下滑，根据德国高级经济顾问的年报，“这将导致现在市场的不确定气氛，转换成全球性信心丧失，进而导致全球投资的崩溃。”不过，专家警告，就算美国简单地通过延长当前政策，解决债务和财政赤字问题，“也将由于更高的主权债务负担而带来长期代价。”
来自希腊的教训？
那究竟真正的解决方案是什么？最终，美国将会达成一个共识，而这个共识和三驾马车将要给希腊开出的方案类似：紧缩措施配合更长时间达成的财政赤字削减目标。现在潜在的大规模赤字削减计划本质上是一种债务刹车，这种方案不具备应对环境变化的灵活性。美国经济学家Denis Flower认为，华盛顿应该引入一条长期的强制性债务削减法律，但同时，该法律在危机时候容许更高的财政赤字。
美国的政治家肯定不愿意听见把他们和希腊相提并论。毕竟，只有美国大选的竞选活动才会把负债累累的南欧国家用于讽刺欧洲式社会主义的可怕。但是，其实美国和希腊之间的财政状况并没有太大的差异，唯一的差异就是美国不能依赖外来的帮助，而希腊得到了外来的救助。
仍需要观察美国的政治家将如何解决这个问题。控制了众议院的共和党，可以简单地把美国推下“财政悬崖”，并把责任推给奥巴马。或是，另一方面，因为美国大选的惨败，共和党可能更愿意妥协。共和党众议院发言人博纳在上周三保证会与白宫紧密合作。他表示法律制定者不会一夜之间把国家的问题全解决了，但是选民“命令我们要合作为国家做最好的事情”。
希腊的经济问题和导致的紧缩政策已经把希腊拖入了连续五年的经济衰退。德国、欧洲和整个世界（可能不包括伊朗、叙利亚）都希望，美国的命运不会跟希腊一样。
The US has finally voted and the dark visions of America's future broadcast on television screens across the country -- and most intensively in battleground states -- have come to an end. Supporters of both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney had developed doomsday scenarios for what would happen if their candidate's opponent were to win. Four more years of Obama, the ads warned, would result in pure socialism. A Romney presidency would see the middle and lower classes brutally exploited.
But following Obama's re-election, Americans are now facing a different, much more real horror scenario: In just a few weeks time, thousands of children could be denied vaccinations, federally funded school programs could screech to a halt, adults may be forced to forego HIV tests and subsidized housing vouchers would dry up. Even the work of air-traffic controllers, the FBI, border officials and the military could be drastically curtailed.
That and more is looming just over the horizon according to the White House if the country is allowed to plunge off the "fiscal cliff" at the beginning of next year. Coined by Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke, it refers to the vast array of cuts and tax increases which will automatically go into effect if Republicans and Democrats can't agree on measures to slash the US budget deficit.
In total, the cuts add up to $1.2 trillion over the next nine years, with half coming from the military and half from other government programs, and with $65 billion coming in the first year alone. They were enshrined in law with the Budget Control Act of 2011, which also increased the debt ceiling. And though a deadline of Jan. 2, 2013 was set, they were never meant to come into effect. The plan for deep across-the-board cuts was intended as a way to prod Democrats and Republicans into reaching agreement on a long-term plan to reduce America's vast budget deficit.
Not a Bad Thing?
The "fiscal cliff" also includes the expiration of tax cuts for the rich, which were originally passed by President George W. Bush and extended by Obama. The elimination of the lower tax rates would, according to the Congressional Budget Office, result in $221 billion in extra tax revenues in 2013 alone. A temporary 2-percent federal income tax cut would also expire, resulting in an additional $95 billion flowing into government coffers next year.
There are also several other cuts and tax hikes included in the austerity package. Some $18 billion in taxes would come due as part of Obama's health care reform, and welfare cuts would save $26 billion. Should lawmakers not reach agreement prior to the end of the year, the US budget deficit for 2013 would be cut almost in half, to $560 billion.
Which doesn't sound like a bad thing. After all, the US is staggering under a monumental pile of debt and could potentially begin to face the kinds of difficulties that have plunged several euro-zone countries into crisis. It is a viewpoint shared by the ratings agencies -- a year ago, Standard & Poor's withdrew America's top rating, justifying the measure by pointing to the unending battle over the debt ceiling. The agency noted that "the political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed."
From afar, it is difficult to argue; the ongoing battle between Democrats and Republicans in the face of a horrendously imbalanced budget looks catastrophically absurd. As their country heads toward the edge of the abyss, lawmakers preferred to debate whether or not French fries and pizza should be considered vegetables.
Still, a significant element in the dispute is a fundamental conflict that won't sound foreign to Europeans: How much austerity is too much?
Plunging Growth
As good as an instantaneous halving of the budget deficit might sound, the landing after a plunge off the fiscal cliff would be a hard one. Were taxes to be ratcheted up at the same time as state programs were slashed, it would have an enormous effect on the economy. According to the Congressional Budget Office, 2013 growth would immediately drop by four percentage points, making a recession unavoidable. The number of unemployed would be two million higher than without the cuts.
It is an eventuality that doesn't just put fear into the hearts of Americans. In its annual report on the US, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) referred to the fiscal cliff as the largest risk currently facing America. Investors have already reportedly become more cautious in the face of the looming cuts. Should politicians not agree to a credible plan for reducing US debt, it could ultimately harm the credibility of the dollar as a reserve currency. More immediately, the IMF writes in its World Economic Outlook report published in October, the drastic cuts "would inflict large spillovers on major US trading partners." In other words, an already fragile Europe would become even weaker.
As such, Germany won't be the only country watching closely as US Congress struggles to reach an agreement in coming weeks. Should the US economy radically slow down next year, "it could in the current atmosphere of uncertainty result in a global loss of confidence that would lead to a collapse in investment worldwide," according to the annual report of top German economic advisors released on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the experts warn, simply postponing measures to address the debt and budget deficit problems "would also have long-term costs in the form of still higher sovereign debt."
The Greek Model?
What, then, is the solution? In the end, the US could arrive at a compromise similar to the one that appears to be forming for Greece: austerity measures combined with more time to achieve budget deficit reduction targets. The drastic cuts currently looming are essentially a kind of debt brake, but it is one with no flexibility built in whatsoever. The US economist Denis Flower proposed in an interview with SPIEGEL ONLINE that Washington should introduce a law mandating long-term debt reduction, but which allows higher deficits in times of crisis.
US politicians, no doubt, would not be fond of hearing their country compared to Greece. After all, the heavily indebted euro-zone country was used during the presidential campaign as a caricature for the horrors of European-style socialism. But their current finances are not dissimilar, with one difference being that the US can't count on outside help as the Greeks have received.
It remains to be seen how US politicians choose to approach the problem. Republicans, having defended their majority in the House of Representatives, could simply let the country plunge off the cliff in the hopes that it would be blamed on Obama. Or, on the other hand, their willingness to compromise may have been increased by virtue of losing the presidential election badly. Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner on Wednesday pledged to work closely with the White House as negotiations begin. He said that lawmakers won't be able to solve the country's problems overnight, but said that voters "gave us a mandate to work together to do the best thing for our country."
Greece's economic problems and the resulting austerity packages it has passed have plunged the country into five straight years of recession. Germany, Europe and the world are hoping that the same fate is not in store for the US.
