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德银2013投资指南:金银价格反弹,美元反转成最大风险

安然翻译,安然发布英文 ; 2013-01-05 09:41 阅读次 
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回顾2012年,商品是总回报表现最差的资产类别,只有木材与豆粕是少有的亮点。

德意志银行商品分析师Michael Lewis与Christina McGlone认为,金银这样的贵金属今年将告别去年底的跌势,转为反弹,但面临两大风险。

第一大风险是经济真正开始好转。高盛经济学家去年12月也预计,2013年初美国经济复苏速度缓慢,但下半年会再次加速。而黄金2013年初可能上涨,但下行风险越来越大。

第二大风险则是美元“急剧”反转。

根据过往历史,美元的周期平均持续七年,而目前美元的熊市周期处于第11年,因此这轮周期应该已经太久。它对商品市场的重要影响尤其体现在,金融危机以来风险资产间的关联性越来越多。

美元在熊市周期后可能急剧反转。比如,1980年7月美元出现反弹,此后12个月里美元升值40%以上。鉴于美国基本收支面继续疲弱,预计美元反转尚需时日。今年上半年,美元将表现弱势。

但Michael Lewis与Christina McGlone也只是预计上半年美元走弱,没有评论此后的进展。

以下可见美元过去十年走势:


回顾2012年,商品是总回报表现最差的资产类别,只有木材与豆粕是少有的亮点。

德意志银行商品分析师Michael Lewis与Christina McGlone认为,金银这样的贵金属今年将告别去年底的跌势,转为反弹,但面临两大风险。

第一大风险是经济真正开始好转。高盛经济学家去年12月也预计,2013年初美国经济复苏速度缓慢,但下半年会再次加速。而黄金2013年初可能上涨,但下行风险越来越大。

第二大风险则是美元“急剧”反转。

根据过往历史,美元的周期平均持续七年,而目前美元的熊市周期处于第11年,因此这轮周期应该已经太久。它对商品市场的重要影响尤其体现在,金融危机以来风险资产间的关联性越来越多。

美元在熊市周期后可能急剧反转。比如,1980年7月美元出现反弹,此后12个月里美元升值40%以上。鉴于美国基本收支面继续疲弱,预计美元反转尚需时日。今年上半年,美元将表现弱势。

但Michael Lewis与Christina McGlone也只是预计上半年美元走弱,没有评论此后的进展。

以下可见美元过去十年走势:


In their daily briefing, Deutsche Bank commodities analysts Michael Lewis and Christina McGlone point out that in 2012 – notwithstanding a few big winners like lumber and soybean meal – commodities as an asset class were the worst investment on a total return basis.

The analysts see that changing in 2013. Namely, they suggest that precious metals like gold and silver, which languished into last year's end, are set to rebound.

However, Lewis and McGlone cite two main risks to their view. The first is that the economy really starts to improve. This is the hypothesis behind Goldman's notably bearish gold forecast for 2013.

The second risk is a "violent" turn in the U.S. dollar, the Deutsche Bank analysts write:

Historically US dollar cycles persist for an average of seven years, hence the current bear cycle in the US dollar is in its 11th year, and consequently should be viewed as long in the tooth. This has important implications for commodity markets not least given the growing correlation between risk assets since the onset of the financial crisis. Turns in the US dollar following bear cycles can be violent. For example, when the dollar turned in July 1980, the dollar appreciated by just over 40% within the following 12 month period. Given the ongoing weakness in the US basic balance we expect a turn in the dollar is some way off and that the US dollar will display weakness in the first half of this year.

Although Lewis and McGlone see continued dollar weakness "in the first half of this year," they don't comment on what might come after that.


关键字: 德银 投资 黄金
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