一切尽如那句日本谚语所说的：“跌倒了七次，第八次再站起来。”
日本正从一年前那场毁灭性的地震中再次站起来，这显示出其强劲的恢复能力。但是这个世界第三大经济体还是面临着多重挑战。国际货币基金组织中的日本任务组在最近对该国经济进行评估时，提出了一系列相互促进的政策建议，以提振信心，促进增长，帮助恢复其经济活力。
一年零四个月之前，日本正遭受东部大地震及其后随之而来的毁灭性破坏。除了人员悲剧性遇难之外，其经济也遭到严重破坏。供应链断裂导致日本部分地区的生产实际上彻底停顿。然而，从那时起，这个国家就开始显示出强大的恢复能力，由于经济重建，一季度强劲增长4.75个百分点。
尽管出现了这些有希望的迹象，并非一切都能水到渠成。
政坛核心正在为如何解决数额巨大且不断增长的公共债务而争论不休。通货紧缩还在影响经济活动。欧元区的动荡给增长前景蒙上乌云。官员们的“清凉商务装”打扮提示着仍然持续的能源短缺。在此背景下，国际货币基金组织展开了对这个世界第三大经济体的常规“体检”。
这次年度性的检查之后，基金组织的工作人员提出了积极、综合的良性循环政策建议：以精心设计的财政调整计划提振信心，以结构性改革促进增长，以及支持中央银行终结通货紧缩。事实上，结束紧缩就有利于填充财政金库，支持经济活动，等等。
日益增长的债务
日本经济要运行良好，首先要日本财政部保持良好状态。自1990年以来，日本净负债已经增长了10倍——相当于GDP的130%——这在发达国家中是最高的。同一时期，其社会保障支出占GDP的比例从10%增长到22%，而与此相对应的税收却很疲软。
这些变化不仅威胁日本财政的可持续性，还给年轻一代日本人留下沉重的负担。一个人口年龄在20到29岁之间的普通日本家庭，在他们一生中要向日本政府净转移相当于其16年收入的资源。
那么，日本该如何应对这不断膨大的债务负担？欧洲的危机提供了两个重要经验。
欧洲的经验
一旦投资者丧失信心，就很难恢复。因此，当债券收益较低且不存在近在眼前的危机威胁时，对日本来说尽快实施一套可靠的中长期调整计划十分重要。
最近下议院通过了加倍征收消费税、直到2015年达到10%的决定。这个决定十分重要。尽管仅仅这样做还不够，但这已经是表明目标的一个强烈信号。
其次，调整势在必行，但没有了增长，调整也不能起作用。日本的增长潜力受制于其劳动力萎缩和投资疲软。而且，调整会给短期增长造成压力。提升增长潜力失败的话，将使减轻债务负担对经济压力的努力更加困难。
更具活力的日本
那该如何促进增长呢？下面给出一些有可能有效的建议：
· 调整财政可以鼓励增长，通过加强对工作和投资的激励来实现。例如，伴随提高消费税，可以延长退休年龄——这正与寿命延长相适应——削减公司和个人所得税，以及铲除变相的税负减免。
· 增加女性职工：日本人口下降的事实，助长了女性劳动力增加的预期——目前在发达国家中日本的女性就业比例是最低的。这不容易做到，但是有一些政策杠杆可以考虑，包括税制改革和取消对日间照顾、长期照顾的管制等等。
· 提高一体化水平：日本有地缘优势，毗邻飞速增长的亚洲市场。日本的对内与对外的外商直接投资（FDI）都很滞后，但它正日益融入这一地区——例如在印尼新开办汽车厂，在全亚洲金融活动不断扩张。参与到“泛太平洋合作伙伴”以及其他一些自由贸易协议中去，将使这种一体化的动力得以强化。并且这也将利于该地区的整体发展：一份工作人员的文章发现了从日本流向亚洲其他地区的FDI具有正溢出效应。（见于即将出版的2012年国际货币基金组织《溢出效应报告》）
· 融资促进增长：日本的金融体系良好，但还有为经济增长提供更大支持的空间。日本面向初创企业服务的风险资本与其他融资服务严重滞后，同时具有活力的中小企业较少能获得担保贷款。政策调整非常必要。
当然，这一切说易行难。但是日本的历史见证了它浴火重生的能力。它还会再次崛起。
As a Japanese proverb has it: “Knocked down seven times, get up eight.”
In a display of its resilience, Japan is getting up once again after the devastating earthquake and tsunami of a year ago. But the world’s third largest economy still faces multiple challenges, and in our latest assessment of the country’s economy, the Japanese mission team at the International Monetary Fund has proposed a range of mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen confidence, raise growth and help restore Japan’s economic vitality.
A year and four months ago, Japan was reeling from the Great East Japan earthquake and accompanying devastation. As well as the tragic loss of life, the economy was badly shaken. Supply chain disruptions brought production in parts of Japan to a virtual halt. Yet, since then, the country has shown its resilience, with reconstruction contributing to strong first quarter growth of 4¾ percent.
But despite this hopeful sign, all is not well.
A contentious debate over how to address the large and growing public debt has occupied the political center stage. Deflation continues to affect economic activity, euro Area turmoil is casting clouds on growth prospects, and the appearance of an army of office workers in “cool biz” attire is a reminder of continuing energy shortages. Against this backdrop, the IMF conducted its regular health check of the world’s third largest economy.
Following that annual checkup, and in response, Fund staff are proposing a virtuous circle of positive, integrated policies: well-designed fiscal adjustment plans to strengthen confidence, and structural reforms to raise growth and support central bank actions to end deflation. Indeed, an end to deflation would help fill fiscal coffers and support activity, and so on.
Rising debt
The first order of business is to put Japan’s fiscal house in order. Net debt has increased ten-fold since 1990 and—at 130 percent of GDP—is the highest of any advanced economy. Over the same period, social security spending has risen from 10 to 22 percent of GDP while associated revenues have remained flat.
These developments threaten fiscal sustainability, but also place an enormous burden on the young. A typical household with head aged between 20 and 29 can expect to make net resource transfers to the government of 16 years of their income over a lifetime.
So, how should Japan address this rising debt burden? The crisis in Europe offers two critical lessons.
Lessons from Europe
Once investor confidence is lost, regaining it is no simple task. So, while bond yields are low and there is no imminent threat of a crisis, it is critical for Japan to put in place as soon as possible, a credible medium-term adjustment plan.
The recent passage by the lower house of parliament of a doubling of the consumption tax to 10 percent by 2015 is an important step. More will be needed, but this is a strong statement of purpose.
Secondly, adjustment is necessary, but adjustment without growth is unlikely to work. Japan’s potential growth has been depressed by a shrinking labor force and weak investment. Furthermore, adjustment may weigh on near-term growth. Failure to raise potential growth will make it all the more difficult to reduce the debt burden on the economy.
A more dynamic Japan
So how to raise growth? Some potentially fruitful directions to consider:
•Fiscal adjustment can be designed to encourage growth, by enhancing incentives to work and invest. For example, a higher consumption tax rate could be combined with a rise in the retirement age—in line with increased longevity—corporate and payroll tax cuts and the elimination of distorting tax deductions.
•Increasing women in work: Japan’s declining population places a premium on raising women’s labor force participation–currently among the lowest in advanced economies. It won’t be easy, but there are policy levers, including tax reform and deregulation of day and long-term care.
•Increasing integration: Japan lives in a good neighborhood, close to rapidly growing Asian markets. It lags in both inward and outward FDI, but is increasingly integrated into the region—new auto facilities in Indonesia and expanded financial activity throughout Asia are examples. Participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and other free trade agreements would strengthen this momentum. And this would be good for the region as a whole: a staff paper finds positive spillovers to Asia from Japanese FDI (forthcoming 2012 IMF Spillover Report).
•Financing Growth: The Japanese financial system, while sound, could do more to support growth. Venture capital and other financing for start-ups lag badly, while less dynamic SMEs receive guaranteed loans. A reorientation of public policy is needed.
All this is easier said than done, of course, but Japan’s history emphasizes its ability to reinvent and revitalize itself. It can do so again.
